Obudu/Bekwarra/Obanliku Fed Constituency : Why PDP Chances Are Zero In 2023

Rt. Hon. Legor Idagbo, Member, representing Obudu/Bekwarra /Obanliku federal constituency 

Since the return of democracy to Nigeria in 1999, the People's Democratic Party, PDP has always won and dominated the Obudu/Bekwarra/Obanliku federal constituency seat in Cross River State. 

The federal constituency like many others in the state was a stronghold of the PDP such that whoever wins the party's primaries was just an inch away from being sworn-in as winner of the main election.

During this period, the PDP primary was usually tougher than the main election because the only real opposition aspirants had to deal with were those within their party.

Realistically, the only time the opposition put up some semblance of fight for the seat was in 2011 and 2019 when John Upan Odey and Koko Dan Agaji contested the elections under the platforms of Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN and the All Progressives Congress, APC, respectively.

In the two elections, despite the ACN and APC candidates being very popular among young people because of their youthfulness, they both lost to the PDP with wide margins.

One of the major reasons for the party's dominance in the constituency and the state generally however was because PDP was the ruling party in the state. With the backing of the state government, opposition had no financial muscle to challenge the PDP.

However, going by the recent change of baton resulting from Governor Ben Ayade's defection from the PDP to APC, PDP which had only government as it centre of attraction for any election in the state will be heading into 2023 as opposition for the first time.

Besides, the Governor and the Honourable Minister of State, Power, Goddy Jedy Agba, OFR are from Obudu which is part of the local government that make up the constituency. The voting strength of their local government alone is enough to deliver their party in the election.

Out of the 60,317 votes Idagbo and PDP had in the 2019 elections, Obudu alone contributed more than forty percent, with the Governor's ward responsible for more than seventy percent of the votes from Obudu. The voting strength of Ipong ward where the Governor comes from is almost the same with those of some entire local governments.

As a man on a mission to prove a point to the PDP for undermining him, he will undoubtedly deliver same votes en block to the APC in 2023. 

Despite the PDP State Chairman coming from Obudu, when Ayade was in PDP and him in APC, there was never an election that he was a threat to the Governor. Now they have both crossed to the opposing sides but there's no sign that suggest anything will change in the next election. 

Similarly, the incumbent member representing the constituency, Rt. Hon. Legor Idagbo who hails from Bekwarra is also in APC. Idagbo, a former Chairman of his local government has never lost any election in his local government since his political career. 

Some would argue that some of the elections he has won were through state powers, but those powers are still there at his disposal heading into 2023 because he's still a member of the ruling APC. 

In addition, APC will be going into the federal constituency 2023 election with luxury of political office holders; five Commissioners, three Chairmen, thirty counselors and more than fifty Special Advisers, Assistants, Supervisory Counselors, amongst others. These people will do everything to protect their stake by delivering their parties in their various pooling units. 

These was the structure the PDP was using to win elections in the constituency nay state. Now, the structure has moved to the APC with the Governor's defection hence, the results too, in future elections will reflect the strength which the PDP had lost to the APC. 

Although, PDP will give their supporters hope as it's natural with Nigeria politics but if there's an election that PDP don't have any chance of winning in 2023 in Cross River State, going by the current political reality, it is the Obudu/Bekwarra/Obanliku federal constituency.