2019 : Not yet Uhuru for party flagbearers in C'River

Prince Michael Nku Abuo

 By Michael Nku Abuo

There will be an interesting dynamics and outcome in the forthcoming national elections which is slated by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to hold in 2019 thus: Presidential and National Assembly elections would hold on Saturday, 16th February, while the Governorship and State Assembly/Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Council elections have been scheduled for Saturday, 2nd March 2019.

From the timing it indicates that we have less than 90 days to the general elections, that is excluding the remaining days of October,2018 and election month of February, 2019.The reason is simple October, 2018 is already gone and February, 2019 as election month can't be counted as it will come with it intrigues, campaigning and consultations etc.

Therefore, all political flagbearers and their team have got 90 days(3 months) to cement/perfect their victory ahead of the 2019 elections.Nationally over 73 Million Nigerians as at January, 2018 according to a Punch Newspaper compilation computed from INEC are registered voters.

Sadly,  just about half of that population have collected their voter's card as at the time of the report.These about 35-37 million Nigerians would determine the political fate of our country.

In Cross River State a little over one million three hundred thousand(1,300,000) "Cross Riverians"(The said statistics is inclusive of majority of indigenes and non indigenes residing in the state) are eligible to vote and if we follow the national statistics approximately about 600-700,000 "Cross Riverians" would determine the fate of our political office holders in Cross River State.

The spread of the voting strength increases from the southern senatorial district and is least in the North(Voting population is highest in the south, higher in the central and lowest in the North).Interestingly, the voters in the South is highly heterogenous(Of mixed ethnicity due to urbanization etc) while the homogenous nature increases down North(What this means is that a bulk of Northern and Central Senatorial District indigenes are also registered down South as well as other non indigene settlers while in the Central and North will have more indigenous voters).

In Cross River State this election will witness one of the highest turnouts we have witnessed since the advent of democracy and the reasons are obvious.Like across the country as seen in recently conducted elections voters awareness has increased with a deeper drive of the electorate to have their votes count and their mandate executed; it is also the first time that we would have an election under the leadership of an APC nation government and a PDP state government as well as these parties at the state level fielding strong candidates and the unsatisfactory outcome of some party primaries in the state etc.

Whether we like it or not the contest would be between the PDP and APC in Cross River State just like it will be in the national.In this election more than ever before the people's will will play out and candidates with massive appeal and coordinated platforms irrespective of party would emerge.It is now left for parties to look beyond their parties to execute victory.The APC in the state technically launched a deeper campaign outreach via their principle of direct primaries and none party members were reported to have voted in that excercise.

As per the crisis in the APC, that shouldnt be a concern to the PDP as it would be resolved and as stated in several court judgements the national party of any party have the sole rights of submitting rightful flagbearers.Rather than wait for "weak" candidates been projected the PDP should focus on deepening her present reach and remodel her tactics.

2019 elections wont be as usual as it used to be.Let us not forget those who arent registered party men are more than those with party membership and we all know this is a game of numbers.The total figures returned by the APC in the Cross River State primaries should be a concern to the PDP too.

Anyone who feels because he has won the party ticket he has won the general elections should sit back and think deeply on these projections! It is not yet Uhuru!! People would vote based on individuals now more than party consideration.Someone they can and will have access to even after victory.

Now to those who may want to hinge their support on the presidency what played out in Lagos state would play out in such states.The presidency had appealed for Ambode to be given a second chance but the people on ground moved agaisnt it and voted against him in a primaries that initially didnt have their blessings but in all the will of the people prevailed.

A president Buhari irrespective of his cordial relationship with the state would not neglect his partt interest neither would his vicious party men neglect same for a friendly PDP government.Therefore, whatever support and effort put to deliver the party in other state is what will play out in Cross River State.Lest we forget the national security and apparatus is controlled by the ruling party.The only thing that will oppose them is the PEOPLE.

The dice has been cast and there's need for a properly coordinated massive appeal/sensitization and intervention.Every hand must be on deck for it will be a deep and keen contest.Cross River State Political Network,CRISPON the largest online and offline non governmental sociopolitical organization made the above analysis from feedback and interactions with her members across the 196 wards in the 18 LGAs of the state.A stitch in time saves...! The time is now!!

Prince Michael Nku Abuo,JP
Director General of Cross River State Political Network,CRISPON